Introduction to Statistics and Modeling Methods Applied in Health Economics

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121 (c) Springer International Publishing AG 2017
D. Razzouk (ed.), Mental Health Economics, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-55266-8_7
Introduction to Statistics
and Modeling Methods Applied
in Health Economics
Vladislav Berdunov and Matthew Franklin
Abstract
The increasing complexity of health economics methodology has raised
the need for technical methods to systematically use patient-level data and
characterize uncertainty around the decision problem for decision makers.
This chapter provides an introduction to these methods, focusing on trial-
based statistical techniques and economic modeling methods for the pur-
pose of health economic analysis. This chapter describes some differences
between the more commonly used frequentist approach for clinical analy-
sis and the developing use of Bayesian methods for health economic anal-
ysis. Statistical methods described include the use of power calculations,
hypothesis testing, and regression analysis, and their relevance for eco-
nomic analysis. More advanced statistical methods are also introduced,
such as the area under the curve method for assessing incremental beneft,
controlling for missing data and baseline characteristics, and using map-
ping algorithms for eliciting preference-based tariff scores when a
preference- based measure has not been collected within a study. The sec-
ond part of the chapter focuses on modeling methods designed to synthe-
size data from multiple sources when the economic analysis needs to go
beyond a single source of primary data or for a longer time horizon.
Multiple types of economic models are described, including decision
trees, state transition models (including Markov chain models), microsim-
ulation, and discrete event simulation. The chapter breaks down key
elements of model design and offers recommendations on possible sources
V. Berdunov (*)
Centre for Primary Care and Public Health, Blizard
Institute, Queen Mary University of London,
E1 2AB London, UK
e-mail: v.berdunov@qmul.ac.uk
M. Franklin
HEDS, School of Health and Related Research
(ScHARR), University of Sheffeld, S1 4DT
Sheffeld, UK
e-mail: matt.franklin@sheffeld.ac.uk
7

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