Far too soon to write off America

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美國價值觀的威力 Far too soon to write off America
作者：歐亞集團總裁 伊恩•布雷默 為英國《金融時報》撰稿

Ihear a recurring refrain from China these days: America’s strength comes not from its democratic and free-market values, but merely from the size of its economy and the power of its soldiers and weapons. There is nothing universal about America’s democratic and economic ideals, Chinese officials insist. Democracy is a relative concept, and markets have a centuries-old habit of spinning out of control. The US remains a superpower only because its economy remains on top. Soon, they warn, this advantage will be gone.	如今，我從中國聽到一句一再重復的話：美國的實力并非源自其民主和自由市場價值觀，而僅僅來自其經(jīng)濟規(guī)模以及軍人和武器的威力。中國官員堅稱，美國的民主和經(jīng)濟理想并不是普世的。民主是一個相對概念，而市場有著根深蒂固的失控傾向。美國之所以仍是一個超級大國，只是因為該國經(jīng)濟仍處于首位。他們警告稱，這一優(yōu)勢將很快消失。
It is no surprise that many Chinese love this argument. It flatters their system and their current success. No need for genuine pluralism or large-scale privatisation of state-owned companies. China’s economy will soon surpass America’s; so say economists on both sides of the Pacific. So, is America exceptional because it is strong, or is it strong because its values are exceptional? That is a question the next president must answer.	并不令人意外的是，很多中國人喜歡這一論點。它迎合了他們的體制和當前的成功。中國不需要真正的多元體制，也不需要大規(guī)模的國有企業(yè)私有化。中國經(jīng)濟將很快超過美國；太平洋兩岸的經(jīng)濟學家們都這樣說。那么，美國出眾是因為它強大，抑或美國強大是因為它的價值觀出眾？這是下屆美國總統(tǒng)必須回答的問題。
It is accepted wisdom that America is in decline, but what about its strengths? Its economy is not simply the world’s largest; it is twice the size of second-place China’s, and its per capita income is higher than those of China, India, Russia and Brazil combined. For all the worry over the US credit rating and emerging alternatives to the dollar, global volatility has only reinforced its dominance as the reserve currency. America’s military is not simply the most capable. It is the only force that can project power in every region. Washington spent more on defence in 2010 than the next 17 nations combined, and even significant expected cuts won’t much narrow that advantage.	目前一個普遍共識是，美國正在衰落，但美國的優(yōu)勢如何呢？美國經(jīng)濟不僅為全球規(guī)模最大；其規(guī)模是位居第二的中國經(jīng)濟的兩倍，人均收入超過中國、印度、俄羅斯和巴西之和。盡管人們對美國信用評級和新興貨幣取代美元感到擔憂，但全球波動性只是鞏固了美元作為儲備貨幣的統(tǒng)治地位。美國軍隊不僅是實力最強的，還是全球唯一有能力在所有地區(qū)投射武力的軍隊。2010年，美國的軍費支出超過其后17個國家的總和，即使在美國軍費支出遭到預期的大幅削減后，這一優(yōu)勢也不會顯著收窄。
The US does of course face formidable challenges. Spiralling federal debt, high unemployment, and lower real wages have taken their toll on its self-esteem. For the moment, Republican demands for smaller government have made new stimulus spending all but impossible. Abroad, Washington will have to do more with less, and developing states now have more power with which to obstruct US plans.	當然，美國確實面臨著可怕的挑戰(zhàn)。螺旋上升的聯(lián)邦債務、高失業(yè)率以及實際薪資下降，這些都傷害了美國的自尊。目前，共和黨對于縮減政府的要求，讓新的刺激支出變成幾乎不可能的事。在海外，美國政府將不得不以更少的資源辦更多的事，發(fā)展中國家現(xiàn)在有了阻礙美國計劃的更大實力。
Yet investment in the future continues apace. No nation is home to more elite universities and graduate schools, more major multinational corporations, and more breakthroughs in state-of-the-art technology. Silicon Valley’s latest tech start-ups have built enough momentum to fuel talk of a new “bubble”. Development of unconventional gas technologies has been the single most economically significant innovation of the past several years; US-based companies have led the way. All these traditional measures of strength suggest the country is doing fine.	然而，對未來的投資正飛快地繼續(xù)著。沒有一個國家擁有比美國更多的頂尖大學和研究生院、更多的大型跨國企業(yè)，以及更多的尖端技術(shù)突破。硅谷最新一波初創(chuàng)科技企業(yè)已形成足夠大的勢頭，以至于有人在談論一個新的“泡沫”。非傳統(tǒng)天然氣技術(shù)的開發(fā)，是過去幾年在經(jīng)濟上最為重大的一項創(chuàng)新；而美國企業(yè)在該領(lǐng)域是領(lǐng)跑者。所有這些傳統(tǒng)的實力衡量標準似乎表明，美國表現(xiàn)不錯。
American values, on the other hand, have taken quite a beating. The US has been an indispensable force for stability and prosperity in recent decades, not only because its middle class is the world’s largest, its soldiers the best equipped, or its technology the most advanced. The true source of its lasting significance is that these advantages are a by-product of its faith in liberal democracy, the rule of law, and market-driven free enterprise.	另一方面，美國的價值觀遭受重創(chuàng)。近幾十年來，美國一直是推動穩(wěn)定和繁榮的不可或缺的力量，這不僅是因為美國中產(chǎn)階層的規(guī)模為全球最大、美國軍人的裝備最精良，或者美國的技術(shù)最為先進。美國影響力經(jīng)久不衰的真正原因是，上述優(yōu)勢是美國崇尚自由民主制度、法治和市場導向型自由企業(yè)的副產(chǎn)品。
The Soviet Union did not buckle beneath the weight of US economic and military might. It was pulled apart by millions of Soviet citizens who demanded the self-determination that Lenin once promised and Soviet power never delivered. It was not America’s tanks but its ideals that felled the Wall.	蘇聯(lián)解體，不是因為其難敵美國的經(jīng)濟和軍事實力，而是由于數(shù)以百萬計的蘇聯(lián)公民要求自決權(quán)——列寧曾作出承諾，但蘇聯(lián)政權(quán)從未兌現(xiàn)這個承諾。推倒柏林墻的，不是美國的坦克，而是美國的理想。
These ideals have lost lustre in recent years. The new century began with contested ballots and a presidential election decided in court, a spectacle that made it harder for Americans to champion democracy abroad. The September 11 attacks generated support around the world, but the opening of Guantánamo Bay prison, the Abu Ghraib scandal, and civilian deaths following US drone attacks inside Pakistan have done lasting damage to America’s ability to defend international law and human rights. Meanwhile, the collapse of Enron and WorldCom; the 2008 financial crisis; and bail-outs for American International Group and automakers have undermined confidence in US-style capitalism. As the US economy struggles to restore lost jobs, China has rebounded.	近年來，美國的理想失去了光芒。新世紀伊始，美國大選就傳出選票爭議，選舉結(jié)果最終由法院裁決，這場鬧劇加大了美國在全世界倡導民主的難度。9/11襲擊在世界范圍為美國贏得很多支持，但美國開設(shè)關(guān)塔納摩灣(Guantánamo Bay)監(jiān)獄、伊拉克的阿布格雷布監(jiān)獄爆出美軍虐囚丑聞，以及美軍轟炸巴基斯坦導致平民傷亡，都對美國捍衛(wèi)國際法和人權(quán)的能力造成了持久損害。同時，安然(Enron)和世通(WorldCom)的倒閉、2008年金融危機、對美國國際集團(AIG)以及幾家汽車制造商的紓困，削弱了人們對美式資本主義的信心。美國經(jīng)濟還在竭力重振就業(yè)之際，中國經(jīng)濟已恢復活力。
In the coming year Barack Obama and his Republican opponent in the presidential election will have extended debates over the nature of US power. It will not be easy to find differences on the details of their plans for Middle East peace, China, Iran or North Korea, but differences in their visions of America’s role in the world will be all too apparent. Mr Obama will argue that restoring the nation’s economic health is necessary for the US to project power abroad, and that values without strength cannot sustain a foreign policy. He will not use the politically clumsy phrase “l(fā)eading from behind,” but he will herald the principle of limited commitment that toppled Muammer Gaddafi with no loss of American life and a minimal taxpayer contribution.	在即將到來的一年中，巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)和共和黨總統(tǒng)候選人必將就美國實力的性質(zhì)進行廣泛的辯論。雙方對中東和平、中國、伊朗或朝鮮的詳細計劃將是相仿的，但對于美國在世界上應當扮演怎樣的角色，雙方將有不同的愿景。奧巴馬將辯稱，讓美國經(jīng)濟恢復健康，將是美國在海外投射實力的必要前提，而沒有實力作支撐的價值觀，是無法推行外交政策的。奧巴馬不會使用“從背后領(lǐng)導”這種在政治上顯得拙劣的說法，但他會鼓吹“有限投入”的原則，就像美國在推翻穆阿邁爾•卡扎菲(Muammer Gaddafi)的過程中所做的那樣——美國沒有遭受任何傷亡，納稅人的負擔也很小。
His challenger will counter that strength without values leaves America without purpose, that it is and must remain an “exceptional” nation, and that it must defend its values everywhere they are challenged. Mr Obama’s vision will fail to inspire. His opponent’s will simply ignore a decade’s damage to US credibility, its leverage and US public tolerance for new commitments overseas.	奧巴馬的挑戰(zhàn)者會反駁稱，沒有價值觀支撐的實力，會讓美國失去目標感，美國仍是——而且必須保持為——一個“出眾”的國家；不論在哪里，只要其價值觀受到挑戰(zhàn)，美國就要起來捍衛(wèi)。奧巴馬的愿景欠缺鼓舞人心的力量。
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