China electricity data ring alarm bells

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中國用電量下降“值得警惕” China electricity data ring alarm bells
英國《金融時報》 喬希•諾布爾 報道
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According to the China Securities Journal, Chinese electricity use dropped 7.5 per cent year on year in January.	據(jù)《中國證券報》(China Securities Journal)報道，中國1月用電量同比下降7.5%。
Sure, it was during Chinese New Year, but, according to Nomura, the statistic looks “alarming”.	當(dāng)然，這一時間恰逢中國春節(jié)，但據(jù)野村(Nomura)稱，這一統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)“值得警惕”。
Here’s Nomura’s chart, with a production estimate based on the published consumption figure:	如下是野村的圖表，包括根據(jù)已發(fā)布的用電量數(shù)字進行的發(fā)電量估計：
And as Nomura puts it:
In the last 10 years CNY [Chinese New Year] has often fallen in different months in consecutive years, which leads to swings (trough to peak in Figure 1) in the year-on-year data. However, we have not (ex-2009) seen an actual decline in electricity production since 2002. We therefore believe that this drop reflects a sharp slowdown in industrial production.	野村評論道：
If the figures do prove correct, then expect some challenging PMI readings in the months ahead. Nomura has yet to alter its forecast for first quarter growth in China, but then it already has a pretty low prediction of 7.5 per cent. Others forecasting 8 per cent and more may be in for a shock.	“過去10年中，春節(jié)通常在相連的年份落在不同月份，這導(dǎo)致同比數(shù)據(jù)出現(xiàn)震蕩（圖1中的波谷到波峰）。然而，自2002年以來，我們從未遇到過發(fā)電量實際下降的情況（2009年除外）。因此我們相信，此次下降反映出工業(yè)產(chǎn)出的大幅下降�！�
	如果上述估計是正確的，那么預(yù)計在未來幾個月的采購經(jīng)理指數(shù)(PMI)將不容樂觀。野村還沒有調(diào)整對中國第一季度的增長預(yù)測，但其預(yù)測已經(jīng)相當(dāng)?shù)土耍瑸?.5%。其他預(yù)測8%或更高的人恐怕會大吃一驚。
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關(guān)鍵詞：Electricity Electric China Alarm Elect 新浪微博 中國證券 published 騰訊微博 Journal