變革中的中國對巴西的影響：一個新的機會窗口？

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TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE ....................................................................................................................................... 7  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................ 9  
A Changing China in a Changing World .............................................................................. 10
Brazil’s Evolving Linkages with China ................................................................................ 12
Policy Implications for Brazil ............................................................................................... 14  INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................ 19  
In Context: Brazil’s Growing Connections with China ........................................................ 19
The Outlook: Relevance of a Changing China for Brazil ..................................................... 20
This Report: Objective, Scope and Structure ........................................................................ 21  
PART 1.  A CHANGING CHINA IN A CHANGING WORLD ................................................ 23  
I. China’s Journey of Structural Transformation ................................................................... 23
A. The Past Three Decades: China’s Journey of Economic Reform ........................... 23
B. The Next Two Decades: A New Phase in China’s Development ........................... 25
II. China in the World: Growing Integration and Mutual Dependence ................................. 31
A. China’s Position in the World ................................................................................. 31
B. Relations between China and the World ................................................................. 34  
PART 2.  BRAZIL’S EVOLVING LINKAGES WITH CHINA................................................. 39  
I. Looking Back: Facets and Characteristics over the Last Decade ...................................... 39
A. Facets of the Brazil-China Relationship: Trade, Investment and Indirect Effects .. 40
B. Characteristics of the Relationship: Complementarity and Similarity .................... 47
II. Looking Ahead: Impact of a Changing China on Brazil .................................................. 61
A. Changes in China: A More Detailed Analysis ........................................................ 61
B. Implications for Brazil: Rising Complementarity, Changing Similarity ................. 65  
PART 3.  POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR BRAZIL .................................................................. 69  
I. Growth Expectations and Structural Reform ..................................................................... 69
A. Recent Developments: Muted Growth Expectations .............................................. 70
B. Structural Reform: The Unfinished Agenda ............................................................ 72
II. Scope for Enhancing Global Integration .......................................................................... 75
A. Has Trade with China Made Brazil Too Outward Oriented? .................................. 75
B. Has Brazil’s Trade Structure Become Too Concentrated? ...................................... 82
C. Has Brazil Become Too Specialized in Commodities? ........................................... 87
III. Leveraging External Connections with China ................................................................. 93
A. Tackling Home-Grown Supply-Side Constraints .................................................... 93
B. Enhancing the External Environment for Trade and Investment ............................ 98  REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................... 107

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關(guān)鍵詞：Implications relationship Expectations introduction concentrated 中國 巴西 影響

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edcv25810 發(fā)表于 2015-12-10 22:38
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本報告分析了中國結(jié)構(gòu)性變革預計給巴西帶來怎樣的機遇和挑戰(zhàn)，從而提高其全球地位和激發(fā)經(jīng)濟增長活力�；�于近期的研究成果（世界銀行和發(fā)展研究中心，2013年），本報告確定了中國經(jīng)濟長期轉(zhuǎn)型的三大潛在趨勢——結(jié)構(gòu)性增長放緩，需求和供給的再平衡，及向價值鏈高端攀升——并分析了這三大趨勢對巴西的影響。本報告研究表明，即使中國向價值鏈高端攀升可能也會帶來新挑戰(zhàn)，但中國經(jīng)濟的放緩和再平衡也可能會為巴西帶來機遇。本文還闡述了巴西如何從與中國的互動中獲得更多益處，以及中國的變化如何為巴西繼續(xù)推進結(jié)構(gòu)性改革議程提供新的機會窗口�？偟膩碚f，巴西可從中國預期的結(jié)構(gòu)改革中獲得巨大的好處，雖然要實現(xiàn)這些惠益需要采取積極的政策立場以加強外部聯(lián)系，并破除阻礙內(nèi)部（經(jīng)濟）增長和生產(chǎn)率提高的藩籬。