發(fā)帖
雷達卡
Pacific) Limited
Valuations/funds flow
• As of January 16, 2009, MSCI China is trading at 9.8x FY09E P/E (based on top-down FY09E EPS of a -5.6% decline) and 9.2x FY08 P/E.
The trough 7x FY08 P/E was in October. The valuation could be more attractive and defensive, if the trailing FY08 P/E reverts to the 8-9x range,
which could provide a better opportunity to re-build positions in MSCI China in the long term.
• As of January 16, 2009, consensus earnings estimate revisions continue to trend downwards. The MSCI China consensus EPS forecasts for
FY08 and FY09 were revised down 2.8% M/M and 13.8% M/M, respectively, in the past month.
• Offshore China equity funds saw marginal inflows (into mostly H shares) in November.
Macro/economy
• Fourth-quarter real GDP rose 6.8%oya, bringing the 2008 GDP down to 9.0%. Seasonally adjusted, the real GDP growth eased to a belowtrend
pace of 1.5%q/q,annualized, in 4Q, the weakest outcome in the history of our series dating back to 1993.
• December data imply that the downward momentum in overall industrial activity abated somewhat at the year-end. IP rose 5.7%oya in
December, compared with 5.4% in November. Seasonally adjusted, IP increased moderately 0.7%m/m in December, after five consecutive
monthly declines.
• On the domestic front, fixed investment growth eased moderately again. For December, the FAI growth pace decelerated to 22.5%oya,
compared with 23.7% in November. December retail sales growth slowed to 19.0%oya from 20.8% in November.
• On the external side, December trade activity contracted further, but the pace of decline was less severe than in November. Merchandise
exports came in slightly better than market consensus, declining 2.8%oya last month. Exports fell 6.5%m/m, sa in December, on top of the 9.5%
plunge in November, the fifth consecutive monthly decline. Imports tumbled 21.3%oya in December. Imports fell 6.5%m/m, sa last month, a
more moderate pace than the 24.5% plunge in November. Overall, the trade surplus narrowed modestly to $38.98 billion in December from
$40.09 billion in November. For full-year 2008, exports and imports rose 17.3%oya and 18.6%, respectively. The trade surplus totaled $295.8
billion in 2008, up modestly (+12.8%) from 2007.
• The December CPI inflation rate eased further, rising 1.2%oya, compared with 2.4% in November. In addition, PPI fell 1.1%oya in December,
compared with a rise of 2.0%oya in November.
• China’s M2 money supply growth picked up notably in December, rising 17.8%oya, compared with the 14.8% growth in November, and
translated to a solid gain of 2.2%m/m, sa. Meanwhile, bank loans at all financial institutions rose significantly in December at 18.8%oya,
compared with the 16.0% growth in November.
• On the monetary policy front, the People’s Bank of China announced on December 22 that the one-year benchmark lending and deposit rates
would be cut 27bp, effective December 23. In addition, the central bank decided to cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for deposit-taking
financial institutions 50bp, effective December 25.
Commodity
• In the past month, both domestic and international spot thermal coal prices declined at unprecedented rates to
US$82/ton and US$81.5/ton, respectively, from their peak in late-February.
• The HRC, CRC and Wire rod steel prices have rebounded 16-22% each from the trough in FY08 due to the
restocking of traders, which is reflected in the rising inventory at the traders’ level.
Financials
• Renminbi loans at all financial institutions rose notably in December at 18.8%oya, compared with the 16.0%
growth in November, which likely reflects the central bank’s loosening control since the middle of this year, and the
latest efforts of the authorities to ease domestic credit conditions amid intensifying global financial crisis and global
economic downturn.
• On the deposit side, renminbi deposit growth slowed modestly, to rise at 19.7%oya in December, compared with
19.9%oya in November. Household deposits continued to register solid growth, while non-financial corporate
deposit growth moderated further in December, likely reflecting the financial strain on the corporate sector given
slowing external and domestic demand.
Consumer
• Retail prices of fresh pork increased by 1.97% to Rmb12.41/500g in December due to the Chinese New Year.
• China sold 9.4 million vehicles in FY08, up 6.7% Y/Y. The Y/Y growth rate in China’s vehicle sale for FY08 went
down by 15.14 percentage points. We find that China autos have started to see a sharp erosion in profitability as of
September FY08, and warn against a round of massive earnings downgrade for China's passenger vehicle sector
in coming weeks.
Telecom
• Mobile local tariff remains steady at around Rmb0.33.
• Total telecom industry revenue grew 13.9% Y/Y in November to Rmb66.3 billion and a rebound from the lowly
Oct-08 Y/y growth rate of 4.6%.
Real estate
• Based on various government real estate trading centers, average daily sales in the seven major cities slid 4.4%
W/W to 1,896 units in the last week ending January 18. Primary sales in Shenzhen and Beijing dipped 20% and
14%, respectively, and sales in other cities were largely flat.
Topics Page
Market Valuation 2
Market Valuation & Fund Flow 3
Economy & Macro 4
Commodities prices 6
Energy & Materials 7
Financial sector 8
Consumer sector 9
Telecom sector 10
Real estates sector 11
Industrial profitability 12
Disclaimers 15
Asia Pacific Equity Research
23 January 2009
China Strategy Dashboards: All the fundamentals you wanted
Key Changes
See page 15 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors
should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision
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