2010年2月中國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)研究報(bào)告

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【出版時(shí)間及名稱】：2010年2月中國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)研究報(bào)告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【頁(yè)數(shù)】：43
        【目錄或簡(jiǎn)介】：
Greater China
Economics
Issues in Focus
China: Upgrade 2010 Forecasts on Improved
External Outlook
We have raised our forecasts for China’s GDP growth
and inflation in 2010 to 11% (from 10%) and 3.2% (from
2.5%), respectively, as the external outlook will likely be
stronger than we previously envisaged. Despite
heightened policy uncertainty weighing on market
sentiment of late, we believe recent policy action taken
by the Chinese authorities should be viewed as
precautionary measures to prevent a full-blown
overheating and a typical boom-bust cycle.
China Rebalancing, Not Overheating
The Chinese economy grew 10.7% YoY in real terms in
4Q09, recovering further from 9.1% in 3Q. On a
seasonally-adjusted basis, sequential QoQ growth
softened a tad further nevertheless, to 2.0% from 2.5%
in 3Q and 4.4% in 2Q. Aggressive policy stimulus has
successfully decoupled China from the deep recession
in the developed markets in the aftermath of the
late-2008 financial crisis. The strong economic rebound,
which commenced and was primarily policy-driven in
2Q09, has been sustained into 4Q09, and has become
more balanced between domestic versus external,
public versus private growth drivers.
Hong Kong: Monetary Conditions Monitor
(Inaugural Issue)
Monetary conditions are a key component of Hong
Kong’s macro fundamentals. Capital inflows
underpinned economic rebound in 2009 but uncertainty
abounds in 2010 including potential reversal of capital
flows upon policy tightening. We have therefore
launched the Hong Kong Monetary Conditions Monitor
to help investors to keep track of developments in Hong
Kong’s monetary space.

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