求助:請熱心的朋友幫助，協(xié)整結(jié)果如何解釋？ 急~~~

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按照AIC和SC最小的原則，協(xié)整檢驗做出來的結(jié)果如下，現(xiàn)在的疑問是 ：
1）檢驗出來有兩種協(xié)整關(guān)系，如何取舍？若不取舍的話，怎么解釋？
2)協(xié)整方程是不是 LXV=-13.47031*LREER +1.763152*LYF +78.82192  
                                                          (13.7564)  (3.67771)  (84.4118)
括號中的是標準誤差。 那么，這個標準誤差是不是過大了？導致協(xié)整方程的無解釋力？

Date: 03/19/10   Time: 10:51   
Sample (adjusted): 1985Q3 2008Q4   
Included observations: 94 after adjustments   
Trend assumption: No deterministic trend (restricted constant)   
Series: LXV LREER LYF     
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1   
   
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)   
   
Hypothesized  Trace 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
   
None *  0.356477  65.16476  35.19275  0.0000
At most 1 *  0.166798  23.72979  20.26184  0.0160
At most 2  0.067573  6.576689  9.164546  0.1507
   
Trace test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level   
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level   
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values   
   
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)   
   
Hypothesized  Max-Eigen 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
   
None *  0.356477  41.43498  22.29962  0.0000
At most 1 *  0.166798  17.15310  15.89210  0.0316
At most 2  0.067573  6.576689  9.164546  0.1507
   
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level   
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level   
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values   
   
Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):     
   
LXV LREER LYF C
-0.073367 -0.988270  0.129356  5.782891
-1.298613  6.186605  2.185843 -32.92122
-2.046727  2.228342  4.798587 -27.21566
   
   
Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):     
   
D(LXV)  0.035133  0.001354  0.005072
D(LREER) -0.006168 -0.021584  0.003448
D(LYF)  0.013708 -0.002544 -0.016653
   
   
1 Cointegrating Equation(s):   Log likelihood  408.9467
   
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)   
LXV LREER LYF C
1.000000  13.47031 -1.763152 -78.82192
  (13.7564)  (3.67771)  (84.4118)
   
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)   
D(LXV) -0.002578   
  (0.00040)   
D(LREER)  0.000453   
  (0.00043)   
D(LYF) -0.001006   
  (0.00052)   
   
   
2 Cointegrating Equation(s):   Log likelihood  417.5233
   
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)   
LXV LREER LYF C
1.000000  0.000000 -1.704098 -1.865810
   (0.83988)  (6.63434)
0.000000  1.000000 -0.004384 -5.713018
   (0.17114)  (1.35182)
   
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)   
D(LXV) -0.004335 -0.026347  
  (0.00702)  (0.03379)  
D(LREER)  0.028481 -0.127435  
  (0.00695)  (0.03349)  
D(LYF)  0.002298 -0.029285  
  (0.00917)  (0.04418)

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關(guān)鍵詞：coefficients unrestricted observations Integrating coefficient adjusted 朋友 如何

存在協(xié)整方程