保羅.克魯格曼:金融危機中的兩類問題
有人問我,為什么不寫一些諸如如何救濟購房者之類,有獨特觀點的的文章。也許我應(yīng)該多寫一點;然而在此之前我要先說一下目前經(jīng)濟中存在的兩類問題。
對金融系統(tǒng)的擠兌是最迫切需要解決的問題之一。如果我們希望避免類似于1931年的經(jīng)濟大崩潰,就必須嚴(yán)控這個問題。而解決諸如如何救濟購房者之類的問題,顯然無法有效緩解銀行的資本危機,也不能立即解除目前的燃眉之急。所以短期內(nèi)解除金融危機的手段主要集中在注入資本和保證流動性上。
現(xiàn)在我們知道經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)陷入了衰退;即使洶涌而來的金融危機得到了控制,衰退也將延續(xù)。我們必須在很多方面有所行動:財政刺激,中央與當(dāng)?shù)卣脑,對購房者的救濟等等?/p>
兩類問題的解決都很重要,我們同時應(yīng)該清醒的意識到,解決其中一個問題并不能自動地把另外一個問題解決掉。實際上,可能直到下屆總統(tǒng)離任,長期手段也不一定能夠有效發(fā)揮作用。而另一方面,迫切需要解決的短期問題則最好在近些天就予以解決。
Two kinds of problems
One thing I’ve been asked is why I’m not writing more about relief for homeowners and other kinds of bottom-up aid to the economy. Probably I should be saying more. But in defense, let me say that there are two kinds of economic problems right now.
The most acute problems involve the run on the financial system. This has to be brought under control if we want to avoid a 1931-style collapse. And things like homeowner workouts quite simply won’t deliver enough relief to bank capital, and certainly not fast enough, to help significantly on that front. So there’s a financial relief imperative, which mainly involves injection of capital and guarantees of liquidity.
Now, on top of that we’ve got the economy’s slide into recession, which will continue even if the high-speed financial crisis is brought under control. What we need there is action on many things: fiscal stimulus, aid to state and local governments, homeowner relief, and more.
It’s important to work on both kinds of problems, but it’s also important not to imagine that solving either one automatically solves the other. And the slower-motion issues, realistically, won’t be effectively addressed for a while, probably until whatshisname moves out of the White House. The high-speed stuff, on the other hand, had better be addressed in the next few days.
注:保羅·克魯格曼(PAUL KRUGMAN)現(xiàn)為美國普林斯頓大學(xué)公共事務(wù)和國際事務(wù)學(xué)院的經(jīng)濟學(xué)教授。他曾經(jīng)是斯坦福大學(xué)的教授和麻省理工學(xué)院的教授。1991年,年輕的克魯格曼獲得美國經(jīng)濟學(xué)會克拉克獎,名聲大噪,克拉克獎被視為諾貝爾獎的重要指針,因此,保羅·克魯格曼是諾貝爾獎的當(dāng)然候選人。大約十年前,他的著作《蕭條經(jīng)濟學(xué)的回歸》發(fā)表,一時洛陽紙貴?唆敻衤1996年的《流行國際主義》一書中準(zhǔn)確預(yù)言了亞洲金融危機。
這是他的博客地址:http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/