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當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)及新一輪宏觀調(diào)控政策取向... 1

2009年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)前景與中國(guó)外貿(mào)發(fā)展形勢(shì)展望... 8

2009年貨幣政策目標(biāo)與調(diào)控思路... 16

當(dāng)前財(cái)政經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)與進(jìn)一步發(fā)揮財(cái)政政策作用... 20

對(duì)當(dāng)前和今后一段時(shí)期中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)走勢(shì)的認(rèn)識(shí)與判斷... 28

國(guó)際匯率、油價(jià)、物價(jià)變動(dòng)的新格局對(duì)中國(guó)的機(jī)遇與挑戰(zhàn)... 36

當(dāng)前世界能源市場(chǎng)格局下的中國(guó)能源發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略... 46

深化改革，增加投入，更好地解決三農(nóng)問題... 58

在經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩階段，推進(jìn)完善市場(chǎng)機(jī)制的重要改革... 68

當(dāng)前信息技術(shù)的新發(fā)展及其在我國(guó)的應(yīng)用前景... 75

四川地震災(zāi)后重建規(guī)劃與主要投資項(xiàng)目... 83

2009年實(shí)現(xiàn)“節(jié)能減排”的主要政策措施和前景展望... 91

當(dāng)前資本市場(chǎng)格局與企業(yè)債券的發(fā)展... 98

轉(zhuǎn)換經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式，促進(jìn)內(nèi)需發(fā)展的政策措施... 107

當(dāng)前投資形勢(shì)分析... 111

2009年我國(guó)工業(yè)發(fā)展的政策取向... 119

保持我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)健康發(fā)展的政策建議... 132

283091.doc (567 KB)

2009-1-5 10:06:00 上傳

[下載]經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)背景下中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)相關(guān)11個(gè)分析報(bào)告[部分免費(fèi)下載]

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關(guān)鍵詞：分析報(bào)告 中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì) 經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī) 免費(fèi)下載 fuguitop 下載 中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì) 經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)

摩根：2009年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)展望

December 10, 2008
China Economics
Outlook for 2009: Getting
Worse Before Getting Better
Time for year-end reflection...With the benefit of
hindsight, we think we were correct in terms of the
direction and trajectory of the economy in 2008;
however, the economy has been more volatile than we
initially anticipated. In the same vein, while the course of
policy action has been broadly in line with our calls,
policy responses in the latest months were more
aggressive than we originally envisaged at the end of
2007 but appear warranted, given the rapid deterioration
in economic fundamentals.
…and projection. We think that China’s economic
outlook for 2009 is best characterized as ‘getting worse
before getting better,’ laying the foundation for a firmer
recovery in 2010. Further growth deceleration is
expected in 1H09, and deflation is a distinct possibility.
The effect of massive policy stimulus implemented since
October 2008, together with a tepid recovery in G3
economies, is expected to help the Chinese economy
regain some growth momentum in 2H09.
Risks. We construct two alternative scenarios: the bear
(featuring 5% GDP growth) and bull (9% GDP growth)
cases to highlight both the downside and upside risks to
the 2009 outlook under our base case (7.5% GDP
growth). Real estate investment will be the biggest
swing factor among the scenarios, in our view.
Market Implications. While public-sector-driven growth
will help achieve headline GDP growth and job creation
targets and thus limit the extreme downside risk of an
outright hard landing, it will likely be unable to deliver
nearly as strong corporate earnings growth when the
same level of headline GDP growth is fueled by buoyant
private-sector spending. The public-sector growth will
likely be in a relatively ‘job-rich’ but ‘profit-deficient’
macroeconomic environment in which bonds tend to be
favored over equities. Within the equity space,
sectors/companies with high earning visibility and/or
those exposed to government-supported capex will
likely outperform.

283092.pdf (113.04 KB, 需要: 30 個(gè)論壇幣)

2009-1-5 10:08:00 上傳

[下載]經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)背景下中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)相關(guān)11個(gè)分析報(bào)告[部分免費(fèi)下載]
需要: 30 個(gè)論壇幣  [購(gòu)買]

凱雷：經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)下全球經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑及私募企業(yè)所受影響分析

The Impact of the Financial Services
Meltdown on The Global Economy And The
Private Equity Industry

Excesses in The US Housing And
Mortgage Markets Are A Root Cause
􀂾 Subprime loans accounted for 15% of the US
mortgage market in 2006 vs. 3% in 2002

􀂾 The more than $600 billion of subprime
mortgages that were issued in the US proved
riskier than anticipated

283093.pdf (447.55 KB, 需要: 30 個(gè)論壇幣)

2009-1-5 10:10:00 上傳

[下載]經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)背景下中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)相關(guān)11個(gè)分析報(bào)告[部分免費(fèi)下載]
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hao

PPT標(biāo)題：2008年金融危機(jī)

INTRODUCTION
GREAT DEPRECION (1929-1933)
PRIME AND SUB-PRIME CREDITS
CAUSES OF RECENT WORLD F?NANCIAL CR?SES
EFFECTS OF CR?SES
    EFFECTS TO USA
    EFFECTS TO OTHER COUNTRIES
    EFFECTS TO BUSINESS SECTORS
    EFFECTS TO GLOBAL MONEY MARKET
    EFFECTS TO CONSUMERS
PREDICTIONS ABOUT CRISES
CONSEQUENS OF CRISES
POSIBLE SOLUTIONS OF CRISES

283094.rar (2.41 MB, 需要: 20 個(gè)論壇幣) 本附件包括：

• Global Financial Crisis.ppt

2009-1-5 10:23:00 上傳

[下載]經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)背景下中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)相關(guān)11個(gè)分析報(bào)告[部分免費(fèi)下載]
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高盛2009宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)展望

危機(jī)過后可能出現(xiàn)機(jī)遇
歷史表明危機(jī)往往會(huì)帶來具吸引力的長(zhǎng)期投資機(jī)會(huì)。我們認(rèn)為，擁有強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)潛
力和雄厚的財(cái)政/外匯儲(chǔ)備實(shí)力的中國(guó)仍是全球最佳投資市場(chǎng)之一。我們預(yù)計(jì)，
2009 年H 股和A 股市場(chǎng)的股價(jià)潛在回報(bào)率分別為53.4%和11.0%，上行空間將
主要受到全球/國(guó)內(nèi)增長(zhǎng)企穩(wěn)跡象出現(xiàn)后估值倍數(shù)的正�；�推動(dòng)。
重整旗鼓、蓄勢(shì)待發(fā)、然后反彈
宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的下滑將給盈利帶來壓力，但較低的估值、市場(chǎng)每股盈利和匯率預(yù)期的
下調(diào)、市場(chǎng)情緒的低迷和政策的靈活性應(yīng)會(huì)提供一定的下行保護(hù)。09 年上半年市
場(chǎng)可能依然震蕩，但我們認(rèn)為，下半年當(dāng)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的下行趨勢(shì)可能觸底時(shí)，
市場(chǎng)更有可能出現(xiàn)顯著的反彈行情。
行業(yè)策略：上半年消費(fèi)板塊；下半年周期性板塊
上半年我們看好擁有盈利保障和具有防御性的日常消費(fèi)品、互聯(lián)網(wǎng)/傳媒、電信和
基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施板塊，下半年則從貝塔值的角度轉(zhuǎn)向金融/周期性板塊。從投資題材來
看，我們認(rèn)為，現(xiàn)金充裕、財(cái)務(wù)狀況穩(wěn)健的公司應(yīng)會(huì)在流動(dòng)性緊張的環(huán)境中取得
出色表現(xiàn)。
高

283095.pdf (1.32 MB, 需要: 20 個(gè)論壇幣)

2009-1-5 10:25:00 上傳

[下載]經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)背景下中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)相關(guān)11個(gè)分析報(bào)告[部分免費(fèi)下載]
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M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H

GEMs Equity Strategy
2009 Outlook: Fight Back,
Particularly in Asia

We expect a fight back from GEM equities in 2009
and think Asia will outperform EMEA and LatAm.
Our scenario-weighted target price for MSCI EM is 810
for 2009. This represents 62% upside from current
levels (similar to 1993 or 1999). We therefore retain our
13th October maximum overweight recommendation.
In our view, the secular bull market in EM equities,
dating back to the Asian crisis, is intact. MSCI EM
has returned 112% over the ten-year horizon versus
-6% for MSCI World (US$). The structural increase in
ROE over the cycle is the key driver. We expect a 5
percentage point fall in ROE to 12% in our base case,
with a shorter and less acute earnings recession in EM
than in DM, not least due to policy response. However,
we also highlight risks to our view (US dollar rallies
further, larger earnings recession, and structural
de-rating of global equities) which could drive prices to
our Bear Scenario target price of 415 (-20%).

283098.pdf (726.53 KB, 需要: 20 個(gè)論壇幣)

2009-1-5 10:27:00 上傳

[下載]經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)背景下中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)相關(guān)11個(gè)分析報(bào)告[部分免費(fèi)下載]
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Entrepreneurship and Innovation in China- 1978-2008, 20年中國(guó)企業(yè)創(chuàng)業(yè)及革新

THE ASCENT OF CHINA after some 500 years of inward-looking stagnation is the
central phenomenon of today's global economy. China is not yet the richest nation on
earth, but, in Adam Smith's words, it is the most thriving. In a replay of a young
America's relationship with England, moreover, China is now on a path to challenge the
United States in every measure of national power.
In one way or another China dominates the discussion across many realms of
culture and commerce. From international trade, monetary policy, and intellectual
property to energy use and military power, and from the hype of the Beijing Olympics to
the surge of Asian food, dress, and style in the West, China factors centrally in many of
our most profound public policy debates and everyday conversations. Americans are
filled with a mix of awe and anger over China. Visitors are astounded at its unrivaled

growth and palpable energy and optimism. Detractors believe China has driven up oil
prices, manipulated its currency, stolen American jobs, oppressed its own citizens, and
is preparing for an inevitable clash with the U.S.

283099.pdf (431.36 KB, 需要: 10 個(gè)論壇幣)

2009-1-5 10:29:00 上傳

[下載]經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)背景下中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)相關(guān)11個(gè)分析報(bào)告[部分免費(fèi)下載]
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2100年中國(guó)碳排放預(yù)測(cè)

Introduction...............................................................................................................................2
Some previous scenarios............................................................................................................3
ERI / LBNL 2020...................................................................................................................4
ERI 2050 ...............................................................................................................................5
Decarbonising the UK............................................................................................................5
Our scenario approach ...............................................................................................................6
Choosing a global budget.......................................................................................................6
Which apportionment method?..............................................................................................7
Cumulative emissions budgets for China ..............................................................................9
From budgets to trajectories.................................................................................................10
The Tyndall China scenarios in detail .....................................................................................12
Scenario 1: 70GtC 2020.......................................................................................................14
Scenario 2: 111GtC 2030L ..................................................................................................16
Scenario 3: 90GtC 2020.......................................................................................................17
Scenario 4: 111GtC 2030.....................................................................................................19
Next steps................................................................................................................................20
Acknowledgement ...................................................................................................................21
References...............................................................................................................................21

283100.pdf (1.16 MB)

2009-1-5 10:31:00 上傳

[下載]經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)背景下中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)相關(guān)11個(gè)分析報(bào)告[部分免費(fèi)下載]

2025年之前中國(guó)與世界經(jīng)濟(jì)展望

Contents
Section 1. Preface 2
Section 2. Executive Summary 5
Section 3. Regional Ties 11
Section 4. Unfulfilled Promise 27
Section 5. New Silk Road 43
Section 6. Comparing the Three Scenarios 57
Section 7. Conclusion 65
Annex: Recommended Reading 68
Acknowledgements 70
Project Team Members 72

283101.pdf (8.32 MB)

2009-1-5 10:33:00 上傳

[下載]經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)背景下中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)相關(guān)11個(gè)分析報(bào)告[部分免費(fèi)下載]